Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 3.762102 4.122357 4.543920 5.086366 5.787189 6.697898 8.045296
2025-01-26 3.373946 3.837570 4.430295 5.287512 6.593510 8.756445 13.618825
2025-02-02 3.191294 3.728454 4.462473 5.632665 7.724218 12.404718 39.908004
2025-02-09 2.984682 3.540846 4.331263 5.671876 8.360376 16.345487 NaN
2025-02-16 2.835513 3.406257 4.244469 5.746084 9.116907 23.684120 NaN
2025-02-23 2.646074 3.191939 4.002530 5.482631 8.948387 26.941997 NaN
2025-03-02 2.544416 3.094165 3.928408 5.511295 9.567422 46.283239 NaN
2025-03-09 2.448977 2.996278 3.840665 5.492004 10.060842 124.722607 NaN
2025-03-16 2.342209 2.873245 3.698500 5.334413 10.027115 1405.516656 NaN
2025-03-23 2.300009 2.844236 3.709003 5.497763 11.295713 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.201125 2.721985 3.549646 5.261757 10.812281 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.107793 2.604277 3.391275 5.011526 10.189141 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 2.037116 2.521317 3.292561 4.895418 10.166369 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 2.015586 2.513426 3.323265 5.078687 11.706762 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 2.011063 2.531446 3.400955 5.394435 14.749334 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.971854 2.491497 3.369317 5.430185 16.199758 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.939102 2.460130 3.350811 5.497807 18.332268 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.875261 2.375421 3.226538 5.257327 16.757727 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.844044 2.342913 3.199328 5.283546 18.425777 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.810267 2.304730 3.158724 5.265902 19.692827 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.765571 2.246977 3.077497 5.121539 18.897807 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.752959 2.241606 3.096603 5.271170 23.614090 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.705585 2.176872 2.996848 5.054847 20.813488 NaN NaN